Summary Points
- Bitcoin has broken above the 100-day MA and long-term descending channel, signaling potential bullish momentum—first time since cycle peak.
- The price is approaching the key $80k resistance, with a daily close above it opening the target toward $90k and beyond.
- On-chain data shows 64.2% of BTC supply in profit, but a large portion was bought at higher prices, making the next move crucial for accelerating upward trends.
- Successful retests on the 4-hour chart and strong RSI readings suggest the bullish move could continue, with critical support at $75k.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Closes Above 100-Day MA as Bulls Eye Breakout
Market Movement and Technical Signals
Bitcoin recently closed above its 100-day moving average for the first time since reaching its cycle peak. This move signals a potential shift in market momentum, especially after breaking out of a descending channel that had kept the price in a bearish trend for some time. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $78,300, nearing a key resistance level at $80,000. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is climbing toward 70, indicating strong buying interest without overbought conditions. If Bitcoin can close above $80,000, it could pave the way toward $90,000, with the 200-day moving average near $85,000 acting as a future hurdle. On the downside, support levels start at $75,000, with the 100-day moving average just below it offering additional safety for bulls.
The 4-hour chart shows a clear bullish pattern following the breakout. Bitcoin retested the $75,000 support before pushing higher again. The RSI on this timeframe is above 60, further confirming bullish momentum. If Bitcoin can close above $79,500 on the four-hour chart, the focus shifts toward $82,000 to $84,000. However, if prices fall back below $75,000, support from that level could prevent deeper declines.
On-Chain Data and Investor Sentiment
On-chain analysis reveals that 64.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now in profit. This indicates progress from the February lows, but still leaves 35.8% of supply underwater. Most of that loss was accumulated when Bitcoin was trading between $80,000 and $125,000 during late 2025. As Bitcoin moves toward $80,000, many investors holding underwater are likely to consider selling, creating selling pressure.
Historically, when around 75% to 80% of supply is in profit, upward momentum tends to sustain, and correction pressure weakens. The current level suggests that Bitcoin has yet to reach that threshold. As the price continues upward, more underwater investors could take profits, but fewer forced sellers remain. If Bitcoin clears $80,000, the supply-in-profit ratio may rise quickly, increasing the chances of a significant move higher.
Bitcoin’s current technical and on-chain signals suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, with a potential breakout on the horizon.
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Disclaimer
This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative and carries significant risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. This information may be outdated or incomplete. Do not make financial decisions based on this information. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. This site does not offer, sell, or advise on cryptocurrency, securities or other regulated financial products in compliance with SEC and applicable laws. Please do your own research and seek professional advise.
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