Essential Insights
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Bitcoin’s Q4 Performance: Bitcoin is on track for its worst fourth quarter since 2018, with a nearly 22% decline, raising concerns among traders and analysts amid macroeconomic pressures.
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Price Volatility: Currently trading around $89,000, Bitcoin has shown choppy price movements within an $85,000 to $90,000 range, remaining approximately 29% lower than its all-time high of $126,000.
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On-Chain Indicators: A decline in daily transactions and active addresses suggests weakened market participation, indicating the potential for continued bearish sentiment matched with fading speculative interest.
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Global Economic Impact: Macro factors, including interest rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and uncertainty around future hikes, are contributing to a cooling phase in the cryptocurrency market, limiting risk appetite and new capital inflows.
Bitcoin Suffers Worst Q4 Since 2018 Crash with Near-22% Plunge
Bitcoin (BTC) is set to end the fourth quarter of 2025 with a nearly 22% loss. This marks its worst Q4 performance since the 2018 market collapse. Traders and analysts express concern as on-chain signals and macroeconomic pressures contribute to this decline.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform well in Q4, often recovering from summer lows. For example, BTC increased by nearly 57% in Q4 2023 and about 48% in Q4 2024, powered by optimism around spot ETFs and institutional investments. Yet, this year, the cryptocurrency faces strong headwinds.
Data from Coinglass highlights that earlier in 2025, Bitcoin started with an 11.8% drop in Q1. It then rebounded nearly 30% in Q2 and saw slight gains of just over 6% in Q3. However, the current Q4 downturn raises questions about sustained demand.
Notably, the distribution of losses signals a shift in market behavior. While Bitcoin showed resilience earlier in the year, the late-year slump suggests declining speculative interest. Analysts warn that when new capital fails to replace outgoing investments, it often leads to further downturns.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $89,000. Although it saw a slight gain of just over 1% in the last 24 hours, it remains down more than 2% over the past two weeks. The cryptocurrency is experiencing price fluctuations within an $85,000 to $90,000 range, reflecting increased uncertainty.
Market analysts from CryptoQuant describe the Q4 decline as part of a larger cooling phase. They cite the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and a negative spread between moving averages as evidence of sustained bearish conditions. Daily transaction counts and active addresses have also declined, indicating decreased participation from major traders.
Additionally, XWIN Research Japan highlights the influence of global macro conditions. The recent interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan to 0.75% has further contributed to market caution. Although expected, the uncertainty about future rate hikes has dampened risk appetite, particularly for crypto investments backed by yen.
Despite these challenges, some indicators show promise. The Coinbase Premium Index has improved, suggesting that U.S. demand could increase if market conditions stabilize.
Bitcoin retains its unique position as a decentralized currency that aims to solve issues like inflation and financial inclusion. As the market evolves, stakeholders continue to adapt, providing opportunities for innovation in technology and finance.
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Disclaimer
This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative and carries significant risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Do not make financial decisions based on this information. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. This site does not offer, sell, or advise on cryptocurrency, securities or other regulated financial products in compliance with SEC and applicable laws. Please do your own research and seek professional advise.
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