Top Highlights
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Project Eleven launched the Q-Day Prize, offering 1 Bitcoin to anyone who successfully applies Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer to crack part of an elliptic curve cryptographic key, aiming to assess quantum computing’s real-world threat to Bitcoin security.
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The competition runs from April 16, 2025, to April 5, 2026, and targets the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), with over 10 million Bitcoin addresses potentially vulnerable, risking approximately 6.2 million BTC worth $500 billion.
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Participants must exclusively use quantum computers, with even breaking a few bits of a Bitcoin key as proof-of-concept to suggest future full key recovery could be feasible; no ECC key has been cracked to date.
- Despite experts not viewing the quantum threat to Bitcoin as immediate, the initiative invites open experimentation to quantify the risk, reigniting discussions on the need for adaptive preparation in cryptographic security.
Can Quantum Computing Break Bitcoin? Project Eleven Puts It to the Test
Project Eleven, a leader in quantum computing research, has launched a bold challenge known as the Q-Day Prize. This competition offers one Bitcoin to the first individual or team that successfully uses Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer to break part of an elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) key. It began on April 16, 2025, and will continue until April 5, 2026.
The aim is clear: to measure the actual risks quantum computing poses to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security. The focus is on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which secures many Bitcoin transactions. Participants must rely exclusively on quantum computers, advancing the project’s goal of validating potential vulnerabilities. Even cracking just a few bits of a Bitcoin key could serve as proof that full key recovery may be achievable in the future.
According to Project Eleven, over 10 million Bitcoin addresses currently have exposed public keys. This situation places an estimated 6.2 million BTC, worth around $500 billion, at risk if quantum technologies evolve rapidly. The Q-Day Prize encourages innovation by pushing boundaries beyond theoretical discussions.
Recent innovations in quantum computing strengthen this mission. For instance, Google’s ‘Willow’ chip completed a complex calculation in just five minutes. In contrast, traditional supercomputers would need about 10 septillion years. Companies like IBM, Amazon, and Microsoft are also making strides in quantum hardware, making these advanced processors more accessible. PsiQuantum raised $750 million earlier this year, emphasizing breakthroughs in photonic chip design and quantum algorithms.
Despite these advancements, industry experts do not view the quantum threat to Bitcoin as an immediate concern. Instead, Project Eleven’s challenge aims to rigorously evaluate this risk through open experimentation.
The debate surrounding quantum computing is not new. Earlier in 2025, CryptoQuant highlighted it as a potential risk, particularly concerning mining and private key safety. Tensions escalated following a November NIST report, which warned that certain vulnerable algorithms will be phased out within the next five years. While some advocate for urgent preparedness, others, such as Blockstream CEO Adam Back, believe Bitcoin’s encryption will remain secure until around 2035.
As Project Eleven pushes forward, it sparks a critical conversation. The outcome of the Q-Day Prize may well determine the future landscape of Bitcoin security, underscoring the intersection between innovative technologies and digital currencies.
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